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09 September, 2014

CAPE Fear: Valuation Ratios and Market Timing

If investors (any group of investors) could reliably time their investments for maximum return it would be easy for the rest of us to tell that their strategy was working, since in only a few years they would own the world.  There are many 'strategies', 'schemes', and 'trading systems' designed to provide this seemingly impossible goal, and indeed even some solid academic research to suggest objective metrics that might be employed to when investing in equities will yield above trend returns.  Here Weston Wellington, Vice President of Dimensional offers his views on why these strategies seem doomed to failure, even when backed up by seemingly impecable academic credentials.

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